They still run many of the names out there that spent the last three
seasons playing baseball in October: Bagwell. Alou. Lima. Reynolds. Hidalgo.
But for the Houston Astros, there is only Halloween with
the kids to look forward to this October -- and a whole bunch of playoff games that will go
on without them.
|  | | Lance Berkman, hitting .301 with a .577 slugging percentage, has been one of the bright spots for the Astros. |
The questions are always tough to answer when good teams go bad. But for
this team, at this point in time, the questions seem tougher than the law
boards.
What was this season for the Astros, anyway -- an aberration or the end of
an era?
"That," says general manager Gerry Hunsicker, "is a question we've been asking
ourselves all year. And I'm not sure we've come to any final conclusions. I
suspect the answer lies somewhere in between.
"I think, in many ways, a lot of things just ganged up on us in the same
year. But having said that, we still have the worst record in baseball. So we
can't be burying our heads in the sand, saying this was just a bad dream, and
we'll wake up tomorrow and everything will be OK."
They have played better recently -- ripping off a six-game winning streak that was snapped Sunday -- and are 17-11 since July 19. They've even shown signs of
escaping last place, climbing to within two games of fifth-place Pittsburgh.
Still, the Astros have to wonder: How different would this season have been
had Billy Wagner just been Billy Wagner?
How different would it have been if they hadn't traded Carl Everett -- or
they'd just let Mike Hampton play out his free-agent year instead of dumping
him for the enigmatic Octavio Dotel and a center fielder who may turn out not
to be a true center fielder in Roger Cedeno?
How different would it have been had Jose Lima not come down with a
near-fatal case of Enron-itis?
How different would it have been, for that matter, if Enron Field had
just had the same dimensions as, say, Turner Field -- as opposed to having a
left-field fence erected approximately 34 inches behind the shortstop hole?
We'll never know the answer to all those questions, obviously. But Jeff
Bagwell knows the answer to at least one of them.
"Don't blame Enron Field for us losing," Bagwell said. "The other teams
had to play there, too. And they didn't have any problem beating the crap out
of us."
Well, one thing we know is that come April, Enron Field isn't going
anywhere. The mystery is: Are the Astros going anywhere?
"The thing that encourages me," said manager Larry Dierker, "is that at
least we've made money, because we've averaged 40,000 people a game. So I
think we ought to have some money to make improvements. I don't think we'll
go out on a spending spree. But I think we can at least address some needs.
"I asked Gerry (Hunsicker) if he thought (owner) Drayton McLane liked
winning the division and losing money, or whether he liked finishing last and
making money. And he said, 'I think he likes winning.' So to me, that's
encouraging."
But McLane hasn't delivered any budgets yet. And even if he does decide
to spend some bucks, his brain trust still has to figure out the answer to
its defining question: Just how far away is this team?
Oh, they're far from hopeless. Even with all their key injuries -- to the
likes of Craig Biggio, Ken Caminiti and Alou, in particular -- the Astros are
still third in the league in runs scored, first in total bases, first in home
runs. They've scored more runs than the Cardinals, Braves, Diamondbacks, Mets
and Dodgers.
"We've actually scored more runs per game than we scored last year,"
Hunsicker said. "So offense isn't really our problem."
No, as the Astros try to figure out where they go from here, they have
other questions to ponder.
Will Wagner and Biggio be ready?
This team already has seen what can happen when the closer can't close.
After living through the nightmare of Wagner's nine blown saves in two
months, the Astros know just how critical to their future he is.
The good news is he didn't need reconstructive elbow surgery. The bad
news is he still needed to have a tendon repaired and calcium deposits
removed. While the prognosis is good, "it's still surgery," Hunsicker said,
"especially with a guy who makes his living throwing 95 to 100 miles per
hour."
Then there's Biggio, whose dropoff in production (to .268, with just
eight homers and 26 extra-base hits) was already a worry, even before he tore
his ACL and MCL on the same play three weeks ago.
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One year later ...
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Last season, the Astros won 97 games and their third
straight NL Central crown. A look at their home and road breakdowns for 1999
and 2000 reveals their offensive gains this year have resulted from Enron
Field while their pitching has collapsed at home and on the road. (Through
Sunday) |
|
Hitting
|
|
Home
|
2000
|
1999
|
|
AVG
OBP
SLG
|
.278
.367
.505 |
.261
.353
.402 |
|
Road |
|
|
|
AVG
OBP
SLG |
.268
.352
.437 |
.272
.356
.438 |
|
Pitching
|
|
Home
|
2000
|
1999
|
|
ERA
|
5.57
|
3.43
|
|
Road |
|
|
|
ERA
|
5.30
|
4.27 |
The official diagnosis is that Biggio can be back for the 2001 opener. But
there's a difference between being back and being Craig Biggio.
"The bigger issue," Hunsicker said, "is that obviously, he's a player who
uses his legs. That's a big part of his game. So exactly what the time line
is here is something nobody can predict."
Do they go into next season counting on these two guys or not? The
reality is, they need a Plan B for both of them. But Hunsicker knows the
reality also is that "there's no way you can plan for All-Star caliber
players who aren't ready. There's no way you replace a Billy Wagner or a
Craig Biggio."
What about Lima?
No team ever plans for a 20-game winner who goes out the next year and
leads the league in losses. But do the Astros try to trade Lima and go in
another direction? Or do they assume there's hope for this guy yet?
"I still think Lima can be a pretty good pitcher," Dierker said. "He's
probably not quite as good as what he's done the last couple of years. But I
think he's better than he's been this year. I have a feeling he'll be back in
our rotation -- because I don't have a feeling people will be breaking down
our doors to trade for him. So I think his value is higher to us than it
would be if we traded him."
What about the rest of the rotation?
From a team that rolled out two 20-game winners (Lima and Hampton), plus
the dependable Shane Reynolds, a year ago, the Astros have plummeted to a
team whose rotation has the worst sea-level ERA in the league (5.70, barely
ahead of the Rockies' 5.84).
No team is going to contend, even in the rocketball era, when its
starters give up six runs a night. But how do the Astros fix this mess?
Well, the best news is Scott Elarton, who is 9-1 since June 16, 13-4
overall and giving every indication, Dierker says, that "he can take over as
a No. 1-type pitcher for a long time."
Reynolds will be back. But he needs to be a lot closer to the pitcher who
started the year 5-1 than the guy who has gone 2-8 since. And rookie Wade Miller has
opened enough eyes lately, particularly by taking a no-hitter into the
seventh inning Friday against Milwaukee, that he has laid claim to a spot in
the 2001 rotation.
But then what? Dotel prefers to go back into the rotation after
Wagner returns, but the Astros are trying to convince him his future is in the bullpen. And
Dierker has talked about moving talented-but-disappointing, Chris Holt
into the bullpen, too. But Hunsicker has mixed emotions on that.
If the Astros do have money to spend, they'd prefer to spend it on a
starting pitcher -- preferably a left-hander. So they'll undoubtedly take a run
at luring Hampton back. But if they'd thought Hampton wanted to stay, they
never would have traded him in the first place. And Enron isn't going to help
them convince any pitcher to come to Houston.
"We've got to find a way to stabilize our starting rotation," Hunsicker
said. "We need to find three guys who can get us to the sixth or seventh
inning on a regular basis with a chance to win. Elarton is the only guy who's
shown any consistency at all when things started to unravel. We've had no
consistency out of our rotation and no reliable closer, and that's a bad
combination."
The defense dept.
The Astros' other major Achilles heel has been defense. They're 25th in
the major leagues in fielding percentage. Scouts felt Biggio was losing range
even before his knee surgery. They've had no stability at shortstop. Richard Hidalgo
has played center but is more suited for one of the corners. So up the middle,
this team has been a mess.
"I think shortstop is our biggest question mark," Hunsicker said. "We've
talked about Adam Everett (the former Red Sox No. 1 pick who was obtained in the
Carl Everett deal). But I don't believe in pushing kids before we feel like
they're prepared to compete productively. I guess we'd leave the door open.
But it depends on what we decide our goal is for 2001. I don't see him as
being ready to start in 2001 for a contending team."
Another pivotal question is what to do at third base, where Caminiti has
had trouble staying in the lineup and rookie Chris Truby has played well in
his absence.
"We've got an option on Caminiti, so that's a big decision," Hunsicker
said. "We'd like to see Caminiti get back before the end of the year and
establish he's healthy. But the way Truby's played has been encouraging. He's
shown signs of developing some power. So he's got to be a consideration."
Then there's the outfield, where the Astros have a major traffic jam.
They'd prefer to play Cedeno in center field and Hidalgo in one of the
corners. But they're not certain Cedeno can -- or wants to -- play center.
Then there are all those other outfielders: Moises Alou, Daryle Ward,
Lance Berkman. Someone in that group needs to get traded
this winter. And they'd obviously prefer that someone be Alou, who has risen
back to prominence with a tremendous comeback season (.358, 23 home runs). But if he doesn't waive
his no-trade clause -- and he's refused to do that all season -- they'll probably have to move Ward, who has 18 home runs in just 224 at-bats.
Can they re-sign Bagwell?
With Biggio's future in question, there's no doubt anymore that this is Bagwell's team. But to keep him, it will take a contract in the Chipper
Jones neighborhood ($15 million per year), if not beyond. And much as they want to keep Bagwell
around, there's no certainty McLane will agree to dish out that kind of money -- even to one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport and a guy who's irreplaceable to this franchise.
"That's one of the primary issues we have to deal with this winter,"
Hunsicker said. "He is under contract for one more year. All I can say is
that we'll make every effort."
But does Bagwell want to stay? Most signs have indicated he does. But he
also has made it clear he's unhappy with what has happened this year -- and
wants to see a commitment from management that this team still aspires to
contend.
Asked if the Astros' offensive resurgence lately has given him the
feeling they might not be that far away from contending, Bagwell seemed to
speak volumes by replying with an emphatic: "No."
"I wouldn't say I'm confident this team could just go out and make a
couple of changes and contend," he said. "There are going to have to be some
significant changes to make us a contending team."
Face the changes
One change many of these players clearly would prefer is a change of
managers. But there are conflicting indications about whether that's being
considered. And McLane recently gave Dierker yet another vote of confidence.
So the bigger philosophical question is whether this particular group of
players still has the mind set to contend, or whether this team might need to
tear much of that core group apart and start over.
"It's been very difficult to handle," Hunsicker said. "Most of these
players haven't been in this situation. Some have never been in this
situation before. But I guess if you try to find a silver lining, it's that I
think you find out most about people when they have to deal with adversity.
"The reality is, we have some really hard evaluations to make. Not just
decisions. Evaluations. Some of our key veteran players have been
underproductive. So the question is, do we think they'll rebound, or is this
the beginning of a continuous downward spiral in performance? They're
difficult questions to answer."
And only once they answer them can the Astros decide where they go from
here.
"I think if we believe this club has a chance to rebound quickly next
year, the only realistic way to do that is to keep this nucleus intact and
expect a rebound in performance back to prior levels," Hunsicker said. "But
the more significant changes we decide this team has to make in one year, the
more difficult it will be to put all the pieces back in place."
So what is this team? Is it the '91 Oakland A's, beaten up by injuries,
just taking an intermission before one more championship run? Or is it the
'94 Blue Jays, with its better days in the rear-view mirror and a rebuilding
movement straight ahead?
"We're not prepared to answer those questions yet," says Hunsicker.
But sooner or later, for the Houston Astros, the decision days await.
They'd better keep the Tylenol handy.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | |
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